柴油机热力性能的灰色预测

提出了一种基于柴油机示功图数据分析及灰色预测理论的柴油机热力性能预测方法.该方法从一系列实测示功图压力数据中还原燃烧规律,提取燃烧规律曲线的特征值,并采用灰色预测理论来预测未来的燃烧规律,代入柴油机工作过程计算程序中得到其各热力参数,具有一定的理论及实用价值.     

时间序列法在军械装备故障预测中的应用

运用时间序列的方法对军械装备使用中的故障进行预测,并以火炮射击的距离偏差、火炮轮胎下沉量为例进行定量的分析和计算,阐述了预测原理和使用方法。     

经典 f 、g 级数的修正法

文中对开普勒轨道方程中的经典f、g 级数进行修正,使其适用于考虑主要带谐项的摄动情形,克服了f、g 级数仅用于开普勒轨道短弧段的限制。公式的推导借助计算机完成。使用此方法所得结果与使用数值积分方法所得结果比较:该方法速度快、精度高、可直接得到连续的状态。该方法简洁有效,在航天导航和制导领域具有很大实用价值。     

高炮人-机跟踪系统建模及动态特性分析

本文以某高炮人-机系统为对象,以人的最优控制模型为基础,建立该人-机跟踪系统部分的数学模型,利用计算机求解——即模型预测方法,研究操作者(炮手)在跟踪沿不同航路飞行的空中目标时系统的跟踪误差和动态性能;与此同时研制一套模拟原高炮人-机系统的仿真试验装置,以获取的试验数据做为检验上述模型预测结果和进行全系统性能分析的依据。     

电传动装甲车辆负载功率预测实时能量管理策略

针对电传动装甲车辆负载功率预测功能缺失导致控制作用滞后的问题,提出一种具有较高负载功率预测精度的实时能量管理策略。在分析整车结构的基础上,采用理论分析和数据拟合方法,建立各动力源数学模型。将差分自回归移动平均模型和自适应马尔可夫链两种预测方法相结合,设计非平稳趋势性负载功率组合预测方法。在非线性模型预测控制框架下,构建多目标优化函数,采用序列二次规划法在有限时域内实时求解最优控制指令,优化多动力源协调控制过程。依托硬件在环仿真平台进行多路面行驶实验,对比有无功率预测的能量管理控制效果。结果表明,改进的实时能量管理策略对未来负载功率具有较好的预见性,能够显著优化多动力源协调控制过程,提升车辆燃油经济性,稳定母线电压和电池荷电状态,对传统模型预测控制下的工程应用场景具有一定借鉴意义。     

The SSA-BP-based potential threat prediction for aerial target considering commander emotion

The target's threat prediction is an essential procedure for the situation analysis in an aerial defense system. However, the traditional threat prediction methods mostly ignore the effect of commander's emotion. They only predict a target's present threat from the target's features itself, which leads to their poor ability in a complex situation. To aerial targets, this paper proposes a method for its potential threat prediction considering commander emotion (PTP-CE) that uses the Bi-directional LSTM (BiLSTM) network and the backpropagation neural network (BP) optimized by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA). Furthermore, we use the BiLSTM to predict the target's future state from real-time series data, and then adopt the SSA-BP to combine the target's state with the commander's emotion to establish a threat prediction model. Therefore, the target's potential threat level can be obtained by this threat prediction model from the predicted future state and the recognized emotion. The experimental results show that the PTP-CE is efficient for aerial target's state prediction and threat prediction, regardless of commander's emotional effect.     

Waypoint analysis for command and control

Command and Control (C2) in a military setting can be epitomized in battles‐of‐old when commanders would seek high ground to gain superior spatial‐temporal information; from this vantage point, decisions were made and relayed to units in the field. Although the fundamentals remain, technology has changed the practice of C2; for example, enemy units may be observed remotely, with instruments of varying positional accuracy. A basic problem in C2 is the ability to track an enemy object in the battlespace and to forecast its future position; the (extended) Kalman filter provides a straightforward solution. The problem changes fundamentally if one assumes that the moving object is headed for an (unknown) location, or waypoint. This article is concerned with the new problem of estimation of such a waypoint, for which we use Bayesian statistical prediction. The computational burden is greater than an ad hoc regression‐based estimate, which we also develop, but the Bayesian approach has a big advantage in that it yields both a predictor and a measure of its variability. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

集对分析法在作战仿真结果分析中的应用研究

提出了集对分析法的概念,详细讨论了集对分析法对多指标问题的评估步骤、方法及特点.文章最后运用该方法对一个分队作战仿真实例进行了综合分析评估,证明了集对分析法简单、实用、有效.     

凝结水泵三维流场数值模拟与分析

为深入理解和分析电站凝结水泵性能,采用计算流体力学方法(CFD)对其内部复杂的三维流场进行了数值模拟与分析.首先,建立了某三级凝结水泵各部件几何模型,并对其进行网格划分.通过求解RANS方程对凝结水泵内部三维流场进行数值求解,湍流流动采用SST模型进行模拟.计算得到该泵若干工况下的扬程和功率等性能参数和泵内部流动特征,计算结果与试验数据吻合很好.模拟结果及分析表明:采用CFD方法模拟结构复杂的凝结水泵内部流动和进行性能预报是可行的.通过内流场分析还发现导叶体等部件的设计有可改进之处.     

MDI一体化项目排污口对长江水质影响的预测

以MDI一体化项目排污口为研究对象,采用二维水质数学模型,预测了不同水位条件下,MDI一体化项目各企业排放的废水污染物对长江下游水体水质的影响。预测结果表明,在达标排放前提下,除挥发酚、硝基苯外,各污染物对排污口下游长江水体水质影响较小,长江水体水质基本满足GB 3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》中Ⅲ类标准要求;挥发酚、硝基苯在排污口下游会产生一定的超标污染带,岸边5 m以外,下游120 m以远即满足《地表水环境质量标准》中Ⅲ类标准要求,不会对下游水质安全造成影响。